Major Shifts in the New Trump-Harris Poll

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, released Thursday, reveals some unexpected findings following a politically turbulent month. Despite various upheavals, one element remains unchanged: who leads the presidential race.

The poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by a narrow margin of 1 percentage point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters. This “Trump +1” result echoes previous Times/Siena polls, albeit with a new Democratic candidate.

Significant Changes Beneath the Surface While the headline result appears familiar, several shifts distinguish this poll from earlier ones, which were conducted before Harris secured her party’s nomination, the Republican convention, and the assassination attempt on Trump. Notably, Harris's 1-point deficit marks a significant improvement from Biden’s 6-point lag in the last poll.

These dramatic events cast uncertainty on the poll's results, making it a useful indicator of the current state of the race but not a definitive predictor of the future.

Key Findings Trump’s Popularity Soars: Trump’s favorable rating has risen to 48%, up from 42% in the last poll, marking his highest favorability in a Times/Siena poll. Harris Gains Ground: Harris’s favorability has surged to 46%, up from 36% in February. Her unfavorable rating has dropped to 49% from 54%. Her current favorability surpasses Biden’s, a peak not seen in Times/Siena polls since September 2022. Improved National Sentiment: The proportion of voters who believe the country is on the “right track” has increased to 27%, the highest since the 2022 midterms. Biden’s approval ratings have also improved, and the number of voters who dislike both candidates has plummeted to 8% from 20% earlier this year. These shifts suggest that the political landscape is still very much in flux. Trump’s recent gains resemble a traditional “convention bounce,” possibly amplified by sympathy following the assassination attempt. Such bounces often fade, though not always entirely.

Harris’s Unprecedented Rise Harris’s recent surge deviates from historical patterns. Her momentum is likely to continue, but how the public will respond to her candidacy and the inevitable attacks remains uncertain.

Voter Sentiment on Democratic Leadership The poll finds overwhelming support for Biden’s decision to step aside, with 87% of voters approving. Democrats are largely behind Harris, with nearly 80% supporting her nomination.

Demographic Shifts Harris performs better among young, Hispanic, and non-voters than Biden did. However, she fares worse among white working-class voters and those over 65. These demographic changes are consistent with expectations given her background and contrast with Biden.

The Kennedy Factor When including minor-party candidates, Harris edges out Trump 44% to 43%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%. This indicates that Kennedy’s presence might benefit Harris more, as his support has tended to lean right.

Conclusion While the poll’s top-line result shows a familiar Trump lead, underlying changes in voter attitudes and demographic shifts highlight a dynamic and unsettled race. The true state of the contest will become clearer in the weeks ahead.

https://pastelink.net/ys3f4t12
https://linksome.me/gseaxazawa
https://open.firstory.me/user/clz5i9zkj01ax01y27zqzd6f6
https://wokwi.com/projects/404655049267075073
https://herbalmeds-forum.biolife.com.my/d/107628-major-shifts-in-the-new-trump-harris-poll
https://wandering.flarum.cloud/d/84870-major-shifts-in-the-new-trump-harris-poll
https://forum.potok.digital/topic/5269/major-shifts-in-the-new-trump-harris-poll
http://training.monro.com/forum/posts/m144848-Major-Shifts-in-the-New-Trump-Harris-Poll#post144848
https://gtksa.net/bbs/board.php?bo_table=used&wr_id=136343
https://community.wongcw.com/blogs/799928/Major-Shifts-in-the-New-Trump-Harris-Poll

https://celtindependent.com/advert/major-shifts-in-the-new-trump-harris-poll